Prediction markets are speculative markets created for the purpose of making predictions. Assets are created whose final cash value is tied to a particular event (e.g., will the next US president be a Republican) or parameter (e.g., total sales next quarter). The current market prices can then be interpreted as predictions of the probability of the event or the expected value of the parameter. Other names for prediction markets include information markets, decision markets, idea futures, event derivatives, and virtual markets. Hewlett-Packard pioneered applications in sales forecasting and now uses prediction markets in several business units. Above text is mostly based on Wikipedia article on predictive markets.
Few days ago I’ve got message from Qmarkets to try their system and create question about a future event, and invite people to provide you with answers. Here is my question:
How much will your company / organization (or you as individual) invest in security in year 2008 in relation to 2007?
Try Qmarkets here >>.
P.S. This question, I put there, is probably not best suited question for prediction markets, but I just exercise. Noam from Qmarkets will support me, I’m sure. 🙂